AFGHANISTAN: THE SPECTRE OF A NEW CRISIS
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analyses and informed comments on the most significant developments in the MENA region and beyond, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s rapid military advance has raised doubts about the domestic and regional implications of the US-NATO exit strategy as well as concerns about the country’s future.
On July 14th, the Taliban announced the seizure of Spin Boldak, a strategic border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is only the latest achievement within a major offensive that aims to expand the Taliban’s military control over a large part of Afghanistan’s territory. Recently, Taliban officials from Moscow claimed control of 85% of the country’s districts, a statement strongly contested by Kabul’s government in what has become an intra-Afghan propaganda war. Prior to Spin Boldak, other crucial posts along the border with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran fell under Taliban control, together with many Afghan districts that have gone down without a fight in front of their advance. With governmental forces on the run since May, the Taliban surge has particularly intensified in recent weeks, just before the remaining NATO troops completely withdraw from the war-torn country (scheduled for August 31st, 11 days prior to the previous announcement). In this framework, the capture of crucial border crossings and several districts and cities will likely mean both significant revenue for the Taliban and the strengthening of their position in future negotiations with Kabul’s government. Senior leaders from both the Afghan government and the Taliban are indeed expected to attend the intra-Afghan talks in Doha in the upcoming days, to negotiate a peaceful end to decades of war and halt the violence that has steadily increased since the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan has been announced. Nonetheless, Afghanistan’s progressive fall under Taliban control is constantly raising concerns among regional and international players for what lies ahead, especially as thousands of Afghan citizens are now trying to leave the country amid growing uncertainty about their future.
Experts from the ISPI MED network react to the advancing Taliban forces in Afghanistan.
