ASSAD IN SYRIA: HERE TO STAY?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we focus on Syria, recently at the core of a renewed interest by neighbouring Arab states, willing to re-establish diplomatic ties with the Assad regime. These developments came when the latest negotiations for a new Syrian constitution failed to deliver tangible results, raising questions around the country’s future shape and the tenure of the current government in Damascus .
On October 18th, delegates from all sides met in Geneva as part of the sixth round of the Syrian Constitutional Committee talks. Closing nine months of negotiations by the UN Special Envoy to reach a consensus on constitutional reform was considered a relevant breakthrough for drafting constitutional principles. Nonetheless, in four days, the conference did not make any meaningful progress, failing to reach a shared understanding of how to move the process forward. The failure of the constitutional process so far adds to Syria’s other longstanding issues. The country remains fractured, and while the government controls most of the national territory, a political solution to the conflict seems out of reach. Millions of Syrian refugees are still scattered across the region and worldwide, and the country faces the daunting economic consequences of a decade of war. How these structural problems will be solved in the future is difficult to forecast. The October 20th attack that took place in Damascus exemplifies the political and security challenges that lie ahead. Meanwhile, Syria’s Arab neighbours have started to engage with Assad, with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates in the lead. While the economic significance of these diplomatic steps has been limited thus far, they certainly give a political boost to the Syrian government. Though they do not constitute a violation of the Caesar Act, they are evidence of the shortfalls of the current US policy in Syria, which today lags behind events on the ground.
Experts from the ISPI MED network react to the latest events in Syria.
